Last year’s points beat our rankings. We still publish the number.
If you sort last season’s fantasy points per game against our published dynasty values, last year’s scoring wins. On the 2022–2025 walk-forward (440 players), last-season PPG correlates at 0.660. DCC value correlates at 0.601. A multi-season production blend sits at 0.566. We are publishing that because it is true.
That is not a buried footnote. A dynasty value is not trying to be last year’s leaderboard. Last year’s points describe what already happened. A dynasty number is a claim about the years left. Age, role, pedigree, opportunity, upside, and risk are in the profile because those are the things a 2024 season cannot see.
The honest read
If your only question is “who scored last year,” use last year. If your question is “who should I pay for in a Superflex startup,” a PPG sort will overpay aging volume and underpay the quarterback your league actually prices. The place we do show signal is the buy/sell call among high-level producers — and those samples are small, which we also say on /track-record.
The numbers above come from the live track-record page — the source of truth for this walk-forward. Do not treat this explainer as a new backtest.